There is a plan to prevent such a strike—the Space Surveillance Network, a bevy of sensors that the military uses to track space debris. NASA monitors what’s unofficially known as the “pizza box,” a sort of no-fly zone around the ISS. When pieces of debris are predicted to enter the box—if there’s at least a 1 in 100,000 chance of collision—mission controllers order avoidance maneuvers, firing thrusters that move the ISS and dodge the trash. The technique has been used dozens of times since the first ISS module launched in 1998. But the system only tracks about 45,000 larger pieces, and all sensors have noise. Plus, risk thresholds can miss stuff, sometimes badly. In 2025, Chinese astronauts were briefly stranded at their station after debris hit their return vehicle.
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首先,大模型本身没那么可靠:存在无法根除的幻觉问题、知识时效性问题,任务拆解和规划经常不合理,也缺乏面向特定任务的系统性校验机制。这样一来,以其为“大脑”的智能体使用价值会大打折扣:智能体把模型从“对话”推向“行动”,错误不再只是答错问题,而是可能引发实际操作风险;而真实业务任务往往是跨系统、长链路的,一次小错误会在链路中层层放大,令长链路任务的失败率居高不下(例如单步成功率为95%时,一个 20步链路的整体成功率只有约 36%)。