部分分析人士认为，除非下一任伊朗最高领袖更愿意与美国进行谈判，否则伊朗经济很快就会沦为“停车场”。如果最高领袖被另一个不愿与美国谈判的强硬派取代，那么美国的军事行动将具有惩罚性，“伊朗将倒退回中世纪”。
Compounding the danger of a prolonged conflict is the reality of “trapped” spare capacity. While the global market normally relies on spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to buffer against price shocks, Struyven explained that those barrels typically must flow through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global buyers. Consequently, as long as the Strait remains compromised, that spare capacity cannot be physically deployed. Furthermore, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be used as a textbook response to sustained disruptions, the SPR currently holds around 415 million barrels—more than 200 million barrels lower than it was prior to the 2022 energy crisis.
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短短几周，成千上万亿美元的市值凭空消失。，推荐阅读搜狗输入法2026获取更多信息
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